Will Any Pitcher Reach 300 Wins Agains
Andy Pettitte now has 250 career wins, which should replace 300 wins equally the new standard. Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
Welcome to the social club, Mr. Pettitte.
The 250-win club, that is. Here's your ID bill of fare and hand stamp so you tin can come on in and join the gang.
Andy Pettitte won his 250th career game Saturday confronting the Mariners. The Yankees left-hander needed a few tries, surrounding an ill-timed stint on the disabled list, to finally get in, only here he is.
Of form, the victory leaves Pettitte 50 shy of the 300 bulwark that has forever been used to measure the greatest of the great pitchers. Considering his historic period (forty) and intention to retire at some point in the most futurity, he's not going to reach that marker.
That doesn't mean 250 wins shouldn't be celebrated. After all, information technology's actually an achievement that should be thought of on par with the big three-0-0.
While in that location are 24 300-game winners in baseball history, there are now 47 hurlers with at least 250, counting Pettitte.
In other words, almost exactly the same number of pitchers have at least 250 wins but fewer than 300 equally those who have a total beginning with the number "3." That means the 250-win club is just every bit exclusive—if non quite as impressive—as the 300-win club.
Information technology besides makes for a neat and tidy way of recalibrating our brains to accept that 250 is the new 300.
The 250-Win Social club
The table below shows the 23 pitchers who have between 250 and 299 wins in history. It also has their career win totals, the ages at which they earned career victory No. 100, No. 175 and No. 250, and the seasons in which they earned their 250th wins.
The average ages for each plateau—100th win, 175th win and 250th win—are noted in the final row at the bottom.
Pettitte's Path
As you can tell from the chart, Pettitte actually was pretty much correct on target at the beginning marker, as he made it to No. 100 at 28 years old, compared to the 27.5 average historic period.
Things backed up on the veteran left-hander from there, though, at to the lowest degree compared to the averages. Pettitte reached No. 175—halfway between No. 100 and No. 250—six birthdays subsequently, at historic period 34, 2 full years behind the pace.
Then, in order to get to his 250th, Pettitte needed seven more years, compared to the average of five more. Every bit such, the longtime Yankees starter, in his historic period-41 flavor,* came in four years older than the average age.
Not that there'due south annihilation wrong with that, heed yous.
*Technically, Pettitte won his 250th game while nevertheless 40 years former, but considering his altogether is June xv, he'south in his age-41 flavour. In other words, his baseball age for 2013 is 41, according to Baseball Reference.
Post-World State of war Two Members
For comparison's sake going frontwards, let'south whittle this list down past focusing solely on those members who debuted afterwards World War Two, which eliminates some of the statistics and performances that belong to a time when baseball game was an entirely different game.
For example, you might've noticed above that Al Spalding, who debuted all the way back in 1871, managed to get his 100th win at age 23, then his 175th at 24, followed by his 250th at 25. That's incredible—Spalding won 52, 54 and 57 games from 1874 to 1876—but it's the type of anomaly that skews the numbers a bit too much for the purpose of comparison to a more relevant era.
Hither, then, are the 11 mound men who fall in the 250-to-299-win group and started their careers later on World War 2:
It'south easy to see that Pettitte falls much closer to the averages for each plateau.
Why 250 Is the New 300
Every bit alluded to above, baseball game has inverse dramatically over the years when it comes to bullpen usage—and it'south doing then in ways that are hurting starters' chances at reaching 300 victories.
For ane, starters are throwing fewer innings per outing on average, as the chart at the right shows. By using FanGraphs to tally the number of total games started and full innings pitched by starters during each of the past vi decades, nosotros can make up one's mind the average number of innings per start, which has unsurprisingly declined every 10-year period since the 1950s.
This, of course, is straight related to the proliferation of relievers over the past few decades, as well as teams becoming extra cautious about not overtaxing and risking injury to their multimillion-dollar starting pitchers.
Obviously, fewer innings pitched past starters means fewer opportunities for them to earn a decision—and a win, which is the signal of all this.
Think most it in unproblematic terms: If a starting pitcher lasts simply five or six innings, which is the norm today, he basically needs his team to be ahead at the fourth dimension he exits the game and then stay alee the residual of the way.
To that end, hither'south a table that shows the per centum of all wins achieved by starting pitchers every decade since 1950 (again, using FanGraphs):
Plain as day: The percentage of wins starters have accounted for has declined for vi straight decades, starting with the 1950s.
Fewer innings per start...fewer opportunities for wins...fewer wins.
The Next Members
Given all of the above, which hurlers have the best shot at joining Pettitte in reaching 250 wins?
Let'south employ our table from above, the ane that lists the average ages at which various win totals were reached past those who debuted after World State of war II and got to the 250-to-299 range.
These are the 15 active artillery who have made it to win No. 100 past their historic period-29 season:
That's a talented bunch of pitchers, no? Virtually of them are or take been aristocracy starters at some indicate in their careers.
But even among this group, when you check their current win totals against their electric current ages, how many are you lot ready to say with whatever real confidence will become to 250 wins?
Sabathia is in expert shape, obviously, and would have to be the top candidate.
Verlander, of course, is at the elevation of his game and looks like a potent possibility, but a lot tin happen to keep him from getting 118 more than wins.
Hudson and Hernandez are on opposite ends of the age spectrum, just if the onetime can hang around for a few more years, he's got at least an outside shot because he's already crossed the 200-win plateau. The latter has more fourth dimension on his side but has only just surpassed 100 career wins.
And here are the 4 hurlers who are however pitching later on earning their 175th wins by their age-34 campaigns:
The just new proper name here is Roy Halladay. While he seemed similar a sure shot equally recently every bit a year ago, he's a perfect example of how quickly a bullpen's career tin can take a turn for the worse.
Mark Buehrle, by the way, always flies under the radar in these sort of lists, and he should certainly exist considered. But it'due south besides tough to become behind a guy who has won just ii of his 12 starts this twelvemonth and currently sports an ERA due north of 5.
Surely, there are enough of supremely talented younger pitchers who could be considered candidates to get to 250 if everything goes merely right.
Clayton Kershaw, of course, comes to mind, every bit does David Price, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and, really, a host of others.
But as this is an old human's achievement, it's a bit presumptuous to throw names out in that location just considering they're hot and immature and their careers are off to fantastic beginnings.
When it comes to the 250-win order, after all, it's non how you lot starting time but how you stop.
300 versus 250
Volition we see some other 300-game winner? It's a fair question to ponder given the trends.
In all likelihood, someone will reach that marking at some point, only an already-exclusive guild isn't going to be adding many more members.
So, instead of holding onto such an impossibly high standard, let's lower the measurement a notch without really lowering the operation level.
While "300" looks impressive, "250" is not simply every bit appealing to the centre as a nice, round number, simply it'due south as well merely every bit hard a club to become into.
Just ask the newest member.
All statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
Source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1634870-why-250-career-wins-is-pitchings-new-300-and-who-will-get-there
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